While theoretically, India could miss out on a top-four finish in the ODI World Cup, their current form suggests it would be a major upset if they fail to secure a place.
India's stunning performance in the ICC Men's ODI World Cup 2023 =continued as they secured a resounding 100-run victory over defending champions England in Lucknow on October 29. This victory propelled them to the top of the points table with 12 points from six wins, an impressive feat.
India, which is the only team unbeaten in this competition, somehow still does not have the the big "Q" ahead of the their name and fans are wondering why?.
Despite their exceptional form, Team India hasn't yet secured a spot in the semi-finals, as mathematical qualification is still pending, with three matches remaining. The situation is compounded by the fact that both Sri Lanka and Afghanistan have accumulated 4 points each from their five matches. This means either of these teams could potentially reach India's tally of 12 points.
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At present, with both teams competing, only the winner can hope to equal India's points. For this scenario to unfold, India would need to lose all of their remaining games, including one against Sri Lanka.
The remaining matches for India are as follows:
India vs Sri Lanka (November 2 in Mumbai)
India vs South Africa (November 5 in Kolkata)
India vs Netherlands (November 12 in Bengaluru)
Even a single point for India in any of these matches, or the unlikely event of the Sri Lanka vs. Afghanistan match being washed out, will guarantee Team India a place in the semi-finals.
It's important to note that Pakistan, with four points from six matches, cannot surpass India on the points table as their maximum attainable points, even with wins in their remaining games, would fall two short of India's current total.
Additionally, two of the top four teams, Australia and New Zealand, would have to win two of their remaining three games and lose only to the winner of the Sri Lanka-Afghanistan match. South Africa, the other top-four team, would need to win at least one of their final three games to reach 12 points.
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For India to not qualify for the semi-final, all these results, coupled with a significant negative swing in net run rate resulting in a fourth-place tie-breaker loss, would need to occur.
A win in India's upcoming game against Sri Lanka would eliminate even the slimmest of possibilities and secure them official semi-final qualification.
While theoretically, India could miss out on a top-four finish, but their current form suggests it would be a major upset if they fail to secure a place in the final as well.
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