Jawan box office prediction: Shah Rukh Khan-Atlee movie set to cross Rs 400 crore in its opening weekend

While the success of Shah Rukh Khan's Jawan in the Hindi belt seemed to be a foregone conclusion, the trade is closely watching its performance in the southern states, especially in Tamil Nadu.

Shah Rukh Khan in Jawan.

Bollywood superstar Shah Rukh Khan's latest movie Jawan is poised to break new ground in terms of theatrical revenue for the Hindi film industry. While the movie's success in the Hindi belt seemed to be a foregone conclusion, the trade is closely watching its performance in the southern states, especially in Tamil Nadu. Because the movie has a resemblance to a major Tamil production, despite featuring a Hindi superstar.

"I am shocked at the response the movie is getting for its opening. It's better than most of the Tamil movies. The opening will be on par with a Dhanush or STR movie," said Rakesh Gowthaman, owner of Vettri Theatres in Chennai.

Jawan set for a record-breaking opening in Tamil Nadu

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Gowthaman also speculates about the driving force behind this unexpected phenomenon, saying, "I strongly believe that a lot of Vijay fans are booking the tickets. They are curious to find out whether Vijay has played a cameo in the movie."

From the early stages of the production of Jawan, speculations were rife about Thalapaty Vijay playing a cameo in it. However, the filmmakers so far have remained tight-lipped about this rumour, adding to the curiosity. Also, Jawan boasts of formidable talents from Tamil cinema, including director Atlee, music composer Anirudh, and actors Nayanthara, Vijay Sethupathi and Priyamani.

"If the rumours about the cameo are true, then the movie will rock the box office even on the weekends," Gowthaman added.

Gowthaman, however, also has tempered his expectations about Jawan's performance at the Tamil Nadu box office. While the prerelease tracking estimates and advance ticket sales look promising, the anticipation for the movie is largely confined to multiplexes and urban locations. The movie's eventual success will solely depend on its ability to connect with the movie patrons in the Tamil heartland.

Jawan will be allotted about 70 per cent of total screens in Tamil Nadu. With the theatrical run of Superstar Rajinikanth's Jailer coming to an end, all the major screens will switch to Jawan. And with little competition at the box office, the movie might end up piling more surprises in terms of its commercial success in Tamil Nadu.

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Huge demand for Jawan's Hindi version in South

Jawan has already sold over 11 lakh tickets just on BookMyShow so far. Even as the movie is released in all major Indian languages, most of them seem to prefer to watch the original Hindi version. "What is interesting to note is that the Hindi language version of the film has seen maximum interest from markets in South and East India such as Hyderabad, Kolkata, Bengaluru and Chennai amongst others. Except for Shah Rukh Khan, the entire realm of the film, including the cast, storyline, cinematography and overall treatment, bears a strong imprint of South Indian influence. Given this context, it's truly heartening to observe that Hindi has been embraced as the preferred language, driven by its mass appeal and popularity," said Ashish Saksena, COO – Cinemas, BookMyShow.

Deepak Kondal, a film trade expert based in Hyderabad, predicted that a significant portion of Jawan's revenue in the Telugu states will come from the Hindi version, emphasizing, "Generally, the entire south accounts for Rs 10 crore for a big Hindi movie's opening. This time, it's expected to be even larger, and possibly Jawan may earn Rs 4-5 crore in the Telugu states alone, setting a new record for the Hindi film industry."

Pathaan, Shah Rukh Khan's previous blockbuster, was the highest Hindi earner in the Telugu states, but Jawan is poised to surpass it. Pathaan's lifetime collection in the Telugu states is pegged at over Rs 30 crore.

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Jawan, a box office juggernaut

In the Hindi belt, Shah Rukh Khan is set to shatter previous box office records, including Pathaan. Akshaye Rathi, a film distributor based in Mumbai, predicted a blockbuster opening for Jawan.

"A hurricane is about to strike the box office. Going by the traction and the frenzy and given the fact that this is a super informed Shah Rukh Khan, after the release of Pathaan. And the big addition is going to happen from Tamil Nadu. I won't be surprised if the movie manages to do a Rs 100 crore net worldwide on its opening day," said Akshaye.

Girish Johar, a film producer and film trade expert, shared Akshaye's optimism about the movie's earning potential at the global box office. "I am expecting at least $4-5 million overseas and about Rs 60 crore in India from all languages. It may collect Rs 100 crore on day one. If that happens, the early reports are good and audiences love it, the opening weekend could even reach Rs 450 crore," he added.

Besides playing the lead role, Shah Rukh Khan has also bankrolled the movie under his home production banner Red Chillies Entertainment. The movie will open on more than 6,000 screens worldwide on Thursday.

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